D&D Encounters Season of Magic – Celebration Event
The math on this game
Everything the scheduler sees for D&D Encounters Season of Magic – Celebration Event, and every result from its nightly dry runs. Nothing hidden. How the scheduling works has the background.
The forecast, computed
In the last 5 nightly dry runs of Saturday, Sep 5, this game got a table 0 of 5 times.
Likelihood = (placed + 1) ÷ (runs + 2) = (0 + 1) ÷ (5 + 2) = 14%
The +1/+2 (Laplace's rule of succession) keeps a short streak from claiming certainty: one good night is 67%, not 100%. The cap is 95% — nothing is certain until the real drop, 48 hours out. It isn't landing a table in the dry runs yet, so there's no time or venue to show — the tables below explain what's missing.
Night-by-night results
| Dry run | Result for Saturday, Sep 5 |
|---|---|
| Wed, Aug 26 | no table — 3 more player(s) needed |
| Tue, Aug 25 | no table — 3 more player(s) needed |
| Mon, Aug 24 | no table — 3 more player(s) needed |
| Sun, Aug 23 | no table — 3 more player(s) needed |
| Sat, Aug 22 | no table — 3 more player(s) needed |
What the game needs
| Players | 3–18 (plus the host's chair), all seated together |
| Length | 4 hours, unbroken, inside every constraint below |
| A table | free for the whole session at a venue below |
The demand: who's in, and when
Saturday, Sep 5 · host window 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM
| Player | Hours picked | Fits a full session? |
|---|---|---|
| krissy | 1:00 PM–5:00 PM | ✓ yes |
Not enough players fit a full session this date yet — it can't place until that changes.
The supply: tables it's competing for
| Venue | Tables | Hours on Saturday, Sep 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Public Assembly | 4 | 10:00 AM – midnight |
Every other open game wanting these venues on the same dates is competing for the same tables — that contest is what the nightly dry run actually plays out.
Numbers change as players join and leave. The real answer lands at the drop, 6 PM two days before game day.